Consumer concerns shape future food aisles

In lieu of a crystal ball, the next best thing to help retailers zero in on food trends at Natural Products Expo West is advice from industry analysts. This year, however, insiders say that due to a still-recovering economy, pinpointing future standouts is tough. “This is the first time in a while that we’re not sure what the next big thing will be,” says Rodney Clark, managing director for consumer food and retail at Presidio Financial Partners, an investment firm based in San Francisco. “Consumers are a little more discerning with their money; they’re going back to what they know and spending less.”

Expect many 2010 trends (private label, coconut, gluten-free, non–genetically modified foods) to continue picking up steam at the show, he says. Beyond those, Clark and two other experts suggest three emerging consumer questions that may lead to future changes for manufacturers, suppliers and retailers. 

“Water is our most precious resource.  What’s being done to conserve it?”
Thirty-five liters of fresh water are needed to produce just half a liter of Coca-Cola, according to a report issued by the company and the Nature Conservancy, a worldwide land and water protection agency based in Arlington, Va. The same report found that 640 liters of fresh water are used to produce one liter of Simply Orange Juice.

Statistics like these, along with consumers’ growing water-scarcity concerns in drier regions, will bring water conservation issues to the forefront in the near future, says Jason Morrison, program director at the Pacific Institute, an Oakland, Calif.-based research company that focuses on sustainability issues. “All it takes is one prolonged dry period to get people talking about water pretty quickly,” he says. “Our research shows that most consumers believe businesses should not only engage in water conservation practices, but also be part of the overall solution concerning water quality and water access issues in every community.”

Water footprinting—think of it like carbon footprinting—is an attempt to quantify the water use of an organization, product or locality. Increasingly, Morrison says, investors are including high water dependence as a potential risk when evaluating prospective ventures. Expect more food manufacturers to invest in cutting water use, but don’t necessarily look for a water footprint label, which in some cases would actually require water to create. Morrison is working with the United Nations Global Compact to determine how companies can best communicate water-related information with various audiences. The initiatives are scheduled to be unveiled near the end of 2011.